Last week went 3-3, but the one that mattered cashed. Utah won at Cincinnati 49-25, the Bama Hat Guarantee is 1-0 and the crimson hat stays in the closet. This week I’m staying with the big games and siding with the big money, and every pick has to pass two tests: the bigger bets or the line move are on our side, and the computers agree.
The headliner is the Kentucky Hat Guarantee: Tennessee -6.5 against Kentucky at Neyland. Most of the tickets are on the Wildcats, but the Vols have a bigger share of the money, and the line moved up anyway. I also like Ohio State -7.5 against Oregon, Utah -5.5 against BYU, Miami +7 at Notre Dame and Ole Miss +3.5 against Georgia.
The fade is Florida. The crowd has pushed that line from 4 to 6.5, both models that ran the game like the Sooners, and I’m taking Oklahoma +6.5. And I’m staying away from Alabama at LSU, where the sharps and the computers are fighting. I’ll be watching, though.
2026 record: College picks 12-10-1 (including the Vols) · Vols against the spread 3-2
Read the full column at Five and a Fade: https://fiveandafade.com/2026/11/04/college-five-and-a-fade-follow-the-money/
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