Last Saturday was not my best work. I went 2-3-1 in college, and the Vols gave away a lead in Columbia and my +2.5 with it. So I changed the rules this week: no pick makes the column unless the computers and the handicappers agree with it.
My top play is Utah -6.5 at Cincinnati. Everybody likes a home underdog, and this one is a trap. I also have Ohio State -7 at USC even with a backup quarterback, Duke -7.5 against Boston College, SMU -9.5 at Syracuse and Texas Tech -4 against Arizona.
The fade is Minnesota. Nearly nine out of ten bets are on the Gophers getting 19.5 at Indiana, and three of the four models disagree. I am on the Hoosiers.
There is also something new this week: the Bama Hat Guarantee. Every week, the pick I am surest of gets it, and if it does not cover, I wear a Bama hat on camera. This week it is Utah. Tennessee is off, and Kentucky comes to Neyland on Nov. 7.
2026 record: College picks 9-7-1 (including the Vols) · Vols against the spread 3-2 · NFL picks 3-10
Read the full column at Five and a Fade: https://fiveandafade.com/2026/10/27/college-five-and-a-fade-stop-falling-for-the-home-dog/
Also at TriStar Daily: https://tristardaily.com/college-five-and-a-fade-stop-falling-for-the-home-dog/
Get my columns by email: https://jeremydurham.substack.com
